Columbia University in the City of New YorkThe John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation

20% slope change total mortality

10% slope change total mortality

30% slope change total mortality

40% slope change total mortality

40% slope change intrinsic mortality'

30% slope change intrinsic mortality

20% slope change intrinsic mortality

10% slope change, intrinsic mortality

Data (Slope)

20% slope change intrinsic mortality, TFR = 2.0
Year 2000 Year 2030 Year 2050
Total population 281,421,906 363,066,526 411,223,877
Population 65+ 34,991,753 78,302,526 107,710,704
Population 85+ 4,239,587 12,089,061 34,724,300
Population 100+ 50,454 724,722 4,538,747
Dependency ratios: 100x(dependent ages)/(ages 20-64)
(0-19)+(65+) 0.70 0.85 0.95
(0-19) 0.48 0.45 0.44
(65+) 0.21 0.40 0.51
Life expectancy at birth
Male 74.03 80.40 85.91
Female 79.39 86.34 93.34
Life expectancy at age 20
Male 55.10 61.56 67.16
Female 60.20 67.23 74.29
Life expectancy at age 65
Male 15.91 21.78 27.12
Female 18.98 25.50 32.39
Life expectancy at age 85
Male 5.18 9.19 13.56
Female 6.39 11.48 17.83
Note: intrinsic is defined as total mortality minus accidents, homicide, and suicide
The MacArthur Research Network on an Aging is funded by The John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation
© 2008 John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. All Rights Reserved.
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