Columbia University in the City of New YorkThe John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation

20% slope change total mortality

10% slope change total mortality

30% slope change total mortality

40% slope change total mortality

40% slope change intrinsic mortality'

30% slope change intrinsic mortality

20% slope change intrinsic mortality

10% slope change, intrinsic mortality

Data (Slope)

40% slope change, intrinsic mortality, TFR = 1.5
    Year 2000 Year 2030 Year 2050
Total population   281,421,906 366,167,049 416,076,843
Population 65+   34,991,753 90,183,899 143,047,370
Population 85+   4,239,587 18,671,531 62,615,060
Population 100+   50,454 2,290,427 16,591,905
Dependency ratios: 100x(dependent ages)/(ages 20-64)
  (0-19)+(65+) 0.70 0.87 1.06
  (0-19) 0.48 0.41 0.35
  (65+) 0.21 0.46 0.71
Life expectancy at birth
  Male 74.03 88.02 108.90
  Female 79.39 95.93 127.96
Life expectancy at age 20
  Male 55.10 69.30 90.51
  Female 60.20 76.91 109.29
Life expectancy at age 65
  Male 15.91 29.29 50.80
  Female 18.98 34.90 67.58
Life expectancy at age 85
  Male 5.18 15.36 36.08
  Female 6.39 19.75 52.25
Note: intrinsic is defined as total mortality minus accidents, homicide, and suicide
The MacArthur Research Network on an Aging is funded by The John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation
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