Columbia University in the City of New YorkThe John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation

3yr delay, total mortality

3yr delay, intrinsic mortality

5yr delay, total mortality

5yr delay, intrinsic mortality

7yr delay, total mortality

7yr delay, intrinsic mortality


5yr delay, intrinsic mortality, TFR = 1.5
Year 2000 Year 2030 Year 2050
Total population 281,421,906 351,495,569 371,873,345
Population 65+ 34,991,753 75,947,230 99,304,187
Population 85+ 4,239,587 10,308,914 26,979,343
Population 100+ 50,454 354,646 1,793,430
Dependency ratios: 100x(dependent ages)/(ages 20-64)
(0-19)+(65+) 0.70 0.80 0.84
(0-19) 0.48 0.41 0.35
(65+) 0.21 0.39 0.49
Life expectancy at birth
Male 74.03 79.44 83.22
Female 79.39 85.09 89.23
Life expectancy at age 20
Male 55.10 60.58 64.41
Female 60.20 65.95 70.14
Life expectancy at age 65
Male 15.91 20.19 23.36
Female 18.98 23.73 27.40
Life expectancy at age 85
Male 5.18 7.64 9.70
Female 6.39 9.54 12.29
Note: intrinsic is defined as total mortality minus accidents, homicide, and suicide
The MacArthur Research Network on an Aging is funded by The John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation
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