Columbia University in the City of New YorkThe John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation

3yr delay, total mortality

3yr delay, intrinsic mortality

5yr delay, total mortality

5yr delay, intrinsic mortality

7yr delay, total mortality

7yr delay, intrinsic mortality

7yr delay, intrinsic mortality, TFR = 2.2
Year 2000 Year 2030 Year 2050
Total population 281,421,906 369,835,752 429,828,908
Population 65+ 34,991,753 80,106,465 111,024,463
Population 85+ 4,239,587 12,157,174 34,999,061
Population 100+ 50,454 601,061 3,706,284
Dependency ratios: 100x(dependent ages)/(ages 20-64)
(0-19)+(65+) 0.70 0.87 0.99
(0-19) 0.48 0.47 0.48
(65+) 0.21 0.41 0.51
Life expectancy at birth
Male 74.03 81.53 87.02
Female 79.39 87.38 93.81
Life expectancy at age 20
Male 55.10 62.71 68.27
Female 60.20 68.27 74.77
Life expectancy at age 65
Male 15.91 22.01 26.81
Female 18.98 25.79 31.71
Life expectancy at age 85
Male 5.18 8.78 12.20
Female 6.39 11.04 15.90
Note: intrinsic is defined as total mortality minus accidents, homicide, and suicide
The MacArthur Research Network on an Aging is funded by The John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation
© 2008 John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. All Rights Reserved.
GO2 Media Design, Inc.