Columbia University in the City of New YorkThe John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation

20% slope change total mortality

10% slope change total mortality

30% slope change total mortality

40% slope change total mortality

40% slope change intrinsic mortality'

30% slope change intrinsic mortality

20% slope change intrinsic mortality

10% slope change, intrinsic mortality

Census Bureau official forecast (middle range)

Year 2000 Year 2030 Year 2050
Total population 282,158,336 373,503,674 439,010,253
Population 65+ 35,107,491 72,091,915 88,546,973
Population 85+ 4,295,943 8,744,986 19,041,041
Population 100+ 52,622 207,631 600,909
Dependency ratios: 100x(dependent ages)/(ages 20-64)
(0-19)+(65+) 0.69 0.83 0.85
(0-19) 0.48 0.48 0.48
(65+) 0.21 0.35 0.37
Life expectancy at birth
Male 78.40 80.90
Female 83.10 85.30
Life expectancy at age 20
Male
Female
Life expectancy at age 65
Male 18.60 21.00
Female 22.40 24.50
Life expectancy at age 85
Male 7.10 7.40
Female 8.40 9.30

Population estimates are from: U.S. Census Bureau,
Population Division, 2008 National Population Projections, Aug 14, 2008

http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/2008projections.html

Accessed on Oct 28, 2008

Life expectancy estimates are from Jay's science draft,
and life expectancy at age 20 is unavailable

The MacArthur Research Network on an Aging is funded by The John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation
© 2008 John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. All Rights Reserved.
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